Either the market is utterly confused because Obama said that now is a good time for long term investors to buy stocks or there’s little downside risk left in the stock market. I don’t disagree with the President but the latter explanation is quite unlikely.

Under normal circumstances if the market doesn’t fall a good clip on jobs data as dismal as what we got Friday on top of sizeable downward revisions to the two months prior I might read into it that the market is done falling. That’s easy to doubt lately though. Like everyone else, I’m thinking there has to be a different explanation. Many reasoned that since the number was roughly in line with expectations the damage was already factored in so short covering took the market back into positive territory, which is quite logical. However, knowing what we know about seasonal adjustments and unfavorable revisions during a recession, I want to doubt that one too.

Alan Abelson talked in his piece this week about how bottom callers have thinned out. Obviously they’re sick of being wrong. After all, three out of four industries are shedding jobs, with total job losses over the past four months reaching 2.6 million and 4.4 million since the recession began. It seems that market players, officials, and investors alike have finally come to terms with how dire our situation is and how little there is to be hopeful about. You get that feeling when you watch the news, read the paper, or simply talk to the person next to you. On Sunday the World Bank predicted that the global economy would shrink for the first time since WWII as well as that global trade would decline for the first time since 1982 at a rate not seen since the 30’s. It’s also no secret that it’s our (the U.S. that is) fault.

The market will spend the week first digesting jobs data and then debt supply, both corporate and government. The market is going to have a hard time getting any traction while there’s no clarity on plans to remove toxic assets from banks balance sheets and so far today has chopped around in anticipation. I know a lot of people who feel better about the market having no direction than the one it has had for the past few months.

Since I am not afraid to say I am afraid to be wrong, I’m not going to call a bottom here. But I will say this, usually when everyone gets on the same page the page turns.

About Obama making market calls:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/03/obama-good-time-buy-stocks/

About the World Bank’s predictions:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/08/business/econ.php